Weekly Report 02/2026

Start of the New Year

In many countries, trading in the new year began last Friday. The global equity index is already up 0.5%, while various bond indices have moved south. This is symptomatic of the return expectations for the 2026 investment year. Equities are likely to significantly outperform bonds, and within the bond segments, riskier corporate bonds are likely to outperform government bonds. However, realistically, we can expect a positive return of around 2% for our bond solutions: this is significantly more than inflation, but less than what can probably be achieved with equities.

The first few hours of trading were also interesting because they confirmed our strategy. As in 2025, the high concentration risk in technology stocks could be associated with a low reward (return). The Nasdaq tech stock exchange lost a few points. Speculative AI stocks such as Palantir lost 6% on the first day of trading. In contrast, industrial blue chips such as Boeing, Caterpillar, and Chevron gained the most in the Dow Jones.

This argues against following a capital-weighted strategy with a passive “buy and hold” solution. Most global ETFs are capital-weighted and 74% of them hold North American stocks, primarily AI-related technology stocks. A more balanced strategy encompasses more industries and geographical diversification of business models, especially as the North American economy cools and unemployment continues to rise.

The AI supercycle, which will undoubtedly continue to drive the global economy in 2026, is creating structural growth far beyond the US tech giants – from energy suppliers to healthcare companies. AI infrastructure requires new energy sources and stable power grids. AI-assisted diagnostics and drug development are making clinical trials more efficient and driving the entire industry forward.

Conservative equity investors prefer a dividend strategy. It includes numerous blue chips that are less prone to volatility and still generate solid returns. Sometimes you have to replace one stock with another that offers better return prospects. Each stock also has a conservative, strategic hedge stop, which is reduced by the amount of gross dividends paid during the spring.

Of course, this kind of risk management is necessary to protect against a pronounced bear market. However, looking at the basket of high-dividend stocks, it is striking that their valuation remains moderate. Nevertheless, last year saw a clear double-digit return, and there are good indications that performance in 2026 will again be profitable and well above the inflation rate. This generates real asset growth.

Bank savers no longer have to dream about this. They just have to decide what maximum proportion they want to invest in stocks. And when it comes to retirement savings, it has long been proven that making a deposit early in the calendar year is significantly more worthwhile than making a deposit in December.