Weekly Report 14/2026

The SMI is heading for a clear decline in March

The Swiss Market Index (SMI) rose noticeably last week to 12’570 points (+2.0%). Sika, Givaudan, and Swisscom also contributed to a profitable dividend season, which boosted the SMI’s total return last week a bit higher (+2.2%). Nevertheless, nervousness persists, and the SMI is heading for a clear loss in March.
Compared to the start of the year, the SMI is notably lower (-5.3%), but well within the international average. The SMI’s performance is roughly in line with that of the global equity index (-5.0%) since the start of the year. US markets performed disappointingly last week, pushing the broad-based S&P 500 (-7.0% since the start of the year) and Nasdaq (-9.9%) deep into negative territory. This marks their longest losing streak since 2022. Heavyweight Microsoft has fallen particularly sharply recently and is now clearly the worst-performing stock among the “Magnificent 7” (-26%) since the start of the year.
Instagram (Meta) and YouTube (Alphabet) also came under pressure. They face a wave of lawsuits. In a landmark ruling in the U.S., the jury found it proven that both companies had failed to sufficiently warn users—particularly minors—about the risks of addiction. Their goal, the jury concluded, was to keep users on the platforms for as long as possible to boost advertising revenue. Google argued that YouTube is not a social network, but purely a streaming platform.
In the SMI, however, we saw almost exclusively weekly gainers: Richemont (+6%), Lonza (+5%), Sika, Partners Group, and Roche (each +4%) led the way. Nestlé lagged behind, and only ABB remained in the red (-1%).
Monday, March 23, was particularly turbulent: The SMI, which stood at around 14’000 points at the end of February and was still at 12’560 points as of Friday noon, March 20, plummeted to 12’065 points at the start of the week (11:45 a.m.). The index then rose by nearly 5% within 30 minutes after Donald Trump announced he would postpone planned attacks on Iranian power plants and energy facilities for five days. Incidentally, 5% represents an annual return on the SMI in “normal” times.
This shows once again that the best moments in the stock markets are very close to the worst. Anyone who exits the market and changes their mind half an hour later risks losing an entire year’s return with this approach.
By Friday evening, however, concerns about escalation had not really subsided. And so the SMI ended the past week above Monday’s midday level, but lower than on Wednesday, when hopes for a ceasefire were at their highest.
Fears of stagflation remain. Naturally, inflation fears also spilled over into the bond markets, where yields continued to rise. This is particularly delicate, as interest rates are far more significant than the price of oil. The interest rate is essentially the price of money, upon which many calculations are based: for example, in the leasing and consumer credit sectors, in real estate financing, and in profitability forecasts for corporate investments.