Weekly Report 16/2026

Risks to Price Stability

There are risks to medium-term price stability due to the rise in oil and gas prices in recent weeks. If inflationary pressures persist for a long time, they could also at least moderately hamper global economic growth should second-round effects materialize. As long as artificial shortages keep energy prices high, increased logistics costs will also drive up the prices of other goods and services. Consequently, less of disposable household income remains for consumption.

If there is no end in sight to an extraordinary situation, this can lead to a structural shift in consumer behavior. Declining consumer sentiment figures signal increasing caution among consumers in recent weeks. The main risk to price stability and global economic development remains the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is disrupting supply chains for oil, liquefied natural gas, diesel, kerosene, fertilizer, and helium and affecting global market prices.

Risks of escalation are always difficult to assess, as is the transition from a temporary ceasefire brought about by negotiations to stable, lasting conditions. It also remains unclear how long it will take for traffic through the strait to return to normal. The price of a barrel of crude oil for immediate delivery has recently fallen to $95, but the Strait of Hormuz cannot simply be opened at the push of a button. We remain far away from normal in the energy markets.

Ship traffic through the Suez Canal never fully recovered from the severe disruptions caused by the attacks by the Yemeni Houthi militia. It now stands at only half its 2023 level. In the Strait of Hormuz, however, this is not a realistic prospect. Both China and the U.S. want to restore full, safe, and toll-free shipping as quickly as possible, as stipulated in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

As an individual investor, it is important to remember a comforting principle: geopolitical turbulence does not destroy value. Depending on the risk appetite of the investor community, they may cause temporary declines in stock and bond prices, but this can just as quickly reverse if the news situation changes. Because there are numerous conflicting parties in the Middle East with differing objectives, finding a robust solution to the conflict remains difficult.

The shaky ceasefire pushed the Swiss Market Index to 13’183 points last week (+1.5% compared to the previous week). However, like other prominent stock indices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500), the SMI has remained slightly in negative territory since the start of the year. This also applies to bond indices (e.g., Swiss Bond Index, Global Aggregate Index).

Further bottlenecks in the energy and commodities markets, as well as disruptions in supply chains, remain a risk. For our investments, however, we forecast improved prospects over the course of the second quarter and noticeable price gains by the end of the year.