Weekly Report 17/2026

Continued Solid Growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects slightly weaker global economic growth than previously forecast. While last year it cited “higher trade barriers and increased uncertainty” following April 2, growth is now likely to be weighed down by the slump in commodity supplies resulting from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East.

The IMF expects global economic growth of 3.1% this year (2025: 3.2%). In 2027, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.2% again. These are subtle differences, but important ones. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva had already warned recently: “Even in the best-case scenario, there will be no clean and smooth return to the pre-war situation.” Growth will be somewhat slower—even if the new “peace” were to last.

There was some positive news from Switzerland. Last week, the prospect of an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz lifted the Swiss Market Index to 13,426 points (+1.2% compared to the start of the year). Nestlé Chairman Pablo Isla is quoted in the NZZ as saying: “There is a strong focus on implementation. All employees know exactly what they need to do. We are seeing the first positive results, which is motivating.” Nestlé aims to reduce debt and is generating strong cash flow. “We will also make some divestments, such as selling part of the water business.”

The newly formed insurance group Helvetia Baloise has set ambitious financial targets for 2028. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to grow by 10% to 12% annually. After the group presented cost efficiency targets in April of last year, it is now unveiling further profitability metrics. Accordingly, the return on equity is expected to rise to 16% to 18% between 2026 and 2028. For the 2025 fiscal year, Helvetia Baloise is proposing a dividend of 7.70 Swiss francs per share for the first time. By 2029, this is expected to be more than 50% above the 2025 level.

In local currencies, Sika posted a slight increase (+0.9%) in the first quarter of 2026. CEO Thomas Hasler continues to expect a subdued market environment for the current year given the situation in the Middle East. Nevertheless, he confirmed the annual targets and is counting on an ongoing cost-cutting program that is expected to yield savings of 80 million Swiss francs this year. Givaudan also performed better than expected. Revenue recorded organic growth of 2.8% on a currency-adjusted basis in the first quarter of 2026.

Vas Narasimhan, the CEO of Novartis, has been appointed to the board of directors at Anthropic, a leading AI company known for the AI models Claude 4.6 and Claude Mythos, among others. He explained that AI is already accelerating progress on the most challenging scientific problems in healthcare, from improving our understanding of diseases to developing better medications.