Weekly Report 20/2026

Volatile Days

The market remains volatile these days. The Swiss Market Index (SMI) ended the volatile past week virtually unchanged at 13’100 points (-0.3%). Individual stocks such as Holcim and ABB (total return of +5% each last week) and Kühne + Nagel (+3%) posted clear gains, while a few others like Nestlé (-1%) and Swiss Re (-2%) lost some ground—but no stock as sharply as Alcon (-15%). However, corporate earnings are not immediately reflected in stock prices.

Alcon’s ophthalmic products, such as contact lenses, are a business characterized by continuity. Growth in contact lenses (4%) even exceeded that of market leader J&J (+2.7%). The first-quarter results were strong, and the market reaction was hard to fathom. Given the stock’s modest valuation, 84% of analysts now recommend buying the stock. That is the second-highest figure in the SMI. Only Lonza, at 93%, has a higher buy recommendation rate.

Swiss Life, on the other hand, has only two analysts worldwide who recommend the stock as a buy. For all others, the recommendation is “hold,” “underweight,” or “sell.” Most recently, the UBS analyst changed his opinion and gave it a thumbs-down (“sell”), which was detrimental to the stock price. Analysts are no longer sure whether Swiss Life is an insurance company with a real estate business or a real estate company with an insurance business.

In forming our opinions, we rely to a certain extent on third-party research, but our own analysis certainly always comes first. So, one day after the quarterly results were released, we visited Anders Malmström, CFO of Swiss Re, at the company’s headquarters on Mythenquai in Zurich. In a small group setting, he reviewed the past year for an hour and expressed delight that a third of the annual target had already been achieved. It was important to him that all three divisions, as well as asset management, had contributed to the results. Expectations were clearly exceeded. Nevertheless, with a low price-to-earnings ratio of 10 and a high dividend yield of more than 5%, the stock is trading lower than at the start of the year (-7%). However, this puts the stock in familiar territory. Only 5 out of 20 SMI stocks are currently in the black; all others are in the red.

Things are going well on Wall Street. Profits in the S&P 500 rose so sharply in the first quarter (+27%) as they have not since 2013. 85% of companies exceeded expectations. 64% of all sectors recorded margin expansion. Analysts raised their earnings per share forecasts in 73% of all sectors. The largest investments ever made came from the “hyperscalers.” Over the course of the year, they will invest $755 billion. In the first quarter, they thus contributed 95% to U.S. GDP growth.