Weekly Report 15/2026

In the middle at around 13’000 points

The Swiss Market Index is roughly midway between its 2026 high of around 14’000 points on February 27 and its low of around 12’000 points at noon on March 23. The SMI closed the shortened Holy Week at 12’982 points. That is 2.7% higher than the previous week. In addition, several SMI companies made dividend payments (ABB, Holcim, Sika, and Swisscom).

In recent days, the SMI, like other stock markets, rose on the prospect of an end to the war in Iran. However, the news flow from U.S. President Donald Trump on his “Truth Social” platform remains impossible to analyze. The constant “breaking news” mode, mixed with deliberate threats, repeated deceptive maneuvers, and explosive self-praise, makes it difficult to distinguish between noise, war rhetoric, and genuinely significant signals.

However, developments within the country remain crucial. Prices for a gallon of gasoline rose to over $4, and those for a gallon of diesel to over $5. This creates pressure in a country that does not want war, but rather low prices at the gas pump. The barrel price of crude oil at around $110 was also a topic in Donald Trump’s televised address last week, and he made it clear that he wants to pull out of the war with Iran—which has already lasted more than five weeks—sooner rather than later. The price shock is too great for the U.S. to ignore.

What remains certain, however, is that Europe is a political disaster. There is disagreement on practically every single issue, and the “fair-weather alliance” NATO is taking more damage than expected, as is the defense of Ukraine. The winners of tomorrow will be those countries that make themselves crisis-proof today, the NZZ recently noted. Europe is not among them.

The secret winner of the White House’s actions is Vladimir Putin, for whom higher commodity prices are unexpectedly leading to higher government revenues. And a second winner is Iran: not because of the alleged nuclear bomb, but due to the threat scenario in the Strait of Hormuz. In violation of international law, the mullah regime has de facto taken control of the international waterway, thereby elevating itself to the role of gatekeeper at a lifeline of the global economy.

Even though Europe imports relatively little oil and gas from the Middle East compared to Asia, commodity prices are always set on the global market. That is why French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing for negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently blocked by Iran.