Weekly Report 19/2026

Stocks Continue to Gain Momentum

Essentially, the world’s major central banks are leaving their key interest rates unchanged. As expected, they are not reacting to higher inflation figures, which are driven by higher energy prices and ultimately have only one global cause: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the hours and days when prospects for a reopening improve, oil and gas prices fall. This immediately triggers a collective buying spree in the stock and bond markets. The exact opposite occurs when prospects deteriorate once again. We have experienced both in recent weeks.

The geopolitical situation is challenging, but not unpredictable. Prices are traded daily, for example, regarding inflation in one year or in five years. Even oil and gas prices for deliveries in three or six months are not speculative, but find a market equilibrium every day. The financial market is much broader than one might imagine. That is why the actual reality is far more predictable than the daily headlines, which give us the impression of an uncertain and confusing global economy.

While we are accustomed to top central bank officials interpreting every single deviation from a previous stance in a speech in terms of monetary policy and interest rates, this is a futile endeavor when it comes to the White House. There, earth-shattering statements—for example, regarding Iran—can follow one another by the hour, interspersed with hopeful interpretations of a potential negotiated solution. Or just when you think the issue of tariffs has been laid to rest, Trump reaches back into the tariff box. Many statements are of an extremely fleeting nature. It is precisely this reality that now makes the US president’s remarks seem predictable, and the markets barely react to announcements on “Truth Social” anymore.

Stock market participants in Europe never fully discounted the possibility of a months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, investor sentiment—which had been dominated by the prospect of war in Iran in March—shifted to the positive in April, accompanied by a rotation into defensive sectors. Energy stocks were in demand, infrastructure stocks gained ground, and telecommunications stocks performed well. By contrast, shares of cyclical and consumer-oriented companies came under increasing pressure, partly because households’ disposable income is increasingly being spent on gasoline, gas, and heating oil.

Numerous US tech companies demonstrated their high competitiveness and resilience in their latest quarterly reports. Alphabet (USD 4.66 trillion) and Amazon were recent standout winners and narrowed the gap with Nvidia (USD 4.8 trillion) as the world’s highest-valued company. The Swiss Market Index, i.e., the sum of the largest Swiss stocks, amounts to a fraction of that (CHF 1,430 billion). At 13’136 points, the SMI is slightly below its value at the start of the year (-1.0%).