Weekly Report 12/2026

How much longer?

The crucial question of how long the war in the Middle East and the disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will last remains unanswered. It would already be a major success if oil tankers could be safely escorted through the Strait of Hormuz. In the short term, however, oil, gas, and jet fuel prices have risen to high levels. They are spreading the ripple effects of the roller-coaster ride in the crude oil and gas markets throughout the capillaries of the respective economies, fueling new inflation concerns in many places.

At the same time, it is worth remembering that Donald Trump has repeatedly delivered surprises. As he weighs the political goals of the U.S. and its Gulf allies against the impact on U.S. households and the U.S. stock markets, a diplomatic solution cannot be ruled out. If hopes for a swift end to the war grow and oil prices fall, this will boost the stock markets (“oil’s pain is stocks’ gain”). The release of strategic reserves helped calm the markets. Overall, however, geopolitical uncertainties remain too great at present for stock markets to recover strongly in the short term.

After reaching an interim high of $5’340 last Tuesday, the price of gold per troy ounce held just above $5’000. This points to a consolidation phase. Since the outbreak of the war, however, the dollar has risen from 0.77 to 0.79 francs. Key economic data from the U.S. remains positive, though private consumer spending (only +0.1%) was meager. In March, average prices for a gallon of gasoline rose by 25% to $3.60. This is eroding disposable household income. McDonald’s responded by offering “budget” breakfast deals starting at $2.99 and “meal value” lunches starting at $4.99. Affordability has become the central issue for a large portion of the population.

In Switzerland, we are looking forward to a strong dividend season this spring. About 80% of the companies in our portfolios have announced dividend increases so far. Despite a challenging environment in the European construction industry, the Swiss sanitary technology group Geberit increased its operating profit by 2% to 931 million francs in 2025 and raised its dividend slightly. The increase was somewhat stronger at BKW (+3%). For 2026, the energy group confirmed its forecast of gross profit between 650 and 750 million francs, citing higher hedged electricity prices as the reason.

Swiss Life increased its operating profit (+3%) in the 2025 fiscal year and intends to share its success with shareholders through a higher dividend (+4%). The life insurer believes it is on track to meet its medium-term goals.

Swiss Re is raising its dividend even more significantly (+9%) and will submit a motion at the Annual General Meeting to change the currency of Swiss Re AG’s share capital from Swiss francs to dollars, thereby aligning it with the currency essential to the company’s global operations. This would increase efficiency and reduce operating costs.