Weekly Report 23/2026
Geopolitical Uncertainties
The most significant development this week is the preliminary framework agreement between the U.S. and Iran on a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, which includes provisions for the gradual demining and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, so vital to the global economy. However, significant points of contention regarding nuclear sovereignty and the timeline for Iranian mine clearance leave the agreement incomplete. As a result, daily market fluctuations continued to swing between euphoria and panic.
The spot price of Brent crude oil fell to $91 per barrel, and on the year-end futures market, it even dropped to $81. A month ago, the spot price was still at $118. As a result, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds slipped to 4.4%, after reaching a 16-month high of 4.7% on May 20.
The newly sworn-in chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, nevertheless begins his tenure with an inflation rate that is roughly twice the targeted 2% goal. He takes over a deeply divided board, with the probability implied by the market indicating virtually no chance of an interest rate hike until December 2026, but also almost no chance of a cut. Donald Trump, however, expects him to push through interest rate cuts within the committee as quickly as possible.
The ECB, which is keeping its deposit rate at 2.0% and faces a choice between stimulating growth and fighting inflation—a choice made more difficult by the energy shock caused by the Iran situation—is in a dilemma. It is expected to tighten monetary policy on June 11 in response to the increased inflation forecasts for the eurozone of 2.6% for the current year. At the same time, this is likely to push real growth down to 0.9%, as it assumes two unresolved conflicts (Ukraine, Strait of Hormuz). Growth in Europe is increasingly taking place outside the eurozone, in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, etc.
The business climate in the eurozone is gradually recovering. It was marked by confidence during the period from November 2025 to February 2026. The ongoing war in Iran and the associated energy price shock caused the barometer to drop to 93.2 points. It has now risen slightly again, but remains well below its long-term average of 100. Inflation expectations were lower recently than in April. This is making consumers more confident, as are the surveyed managers in the services sector.
In Switzerland, the Swiss Market Index ended the month of May at 13’542 points (+0.7% compared to the previous week and +3.1% compared to the start of the month). As a result, Swiss stocks are lagging behind global trends because there is little AI-related excitement in the local market.
Topic of the week: SpaceX heralds a new wave of IPOs
What is currently taking shape represents a new dimension in history. Until now, the AI industry has largely developed behind closed doors. For years, the largest AI companies were accessible only to venture capital funds, strategic investors, and major corporate partners. That could change with the wave of IPOs that is on the horizon.
Three giants of the AI industry—Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX—are considering an IPO, and SpaceX has already filed the necessary documents. These documents disclose losses in the billions as well as a plan for shares with special voting rights, which would allow Elon Musk to retain control of the company. The company’s goals include a human settlement on Mars with at least one million inhabitants, as well as the establishment of data centers in space—a visionary part of a total market valued at $28.5 trillion.
The initial public offering is expected to raise up to $75 billion in the first phase, with Musk likely to benefit significantly, including through the potential receipt of up to 1 billion shares, provided he meets certain targets. Everything seems colossal about the largest IPO of all time. The rocket, satellite, and AI giant gives 54-year-old Elon Musk the power to outvote everyone else. Anyone who believes in Musk’s dream must be convinced that SpaceX can capture a significant share of its perceived market potential—and accept that they cannot oust him if things go wrong.
His company Tesla was once the pioneer in electric mobility, but has had to cede its market-leading position to Chinese competitors. The company remains valued at $1.6 trillion, generating revenue of around $100 billion and a profit of $7 billion. The valuation is said to be justified by the humanoid robot Optimus, but even there, the Chinese are already market leaders again.
For active investors, the question arises as to whether the sum of Musk’s ambitions for SpaceX justifies a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion—against the backdrop of financial data that seems minuscule by comparison. SpaceX reported a net loss of $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 on revenue of $4.7 billion. Passive investors don’t need to worry about this. SpaceX will instantly rank among the 15 most valuable publicly traded companies worldwide and will therefore be automatically included in all relevant ETFs.
The most important data points in the new week
| June 1, 2026 | Eurozone / U.S.: Manufacturing PMI for May |
| June 2, 2026 | Eurozone: Core HICP and inflation for May |
| June 3, 2026 | Eurozone / U.S.: Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes May |
| June 5, 2026 | U.S.: May Labor Market Data and Wage Growth |
Events
Zugerberg Finance Economic and Stock Market Outlook – June 2026
The next Zugerberg Finance Economic and Equity Market Outlook will take place on Tuesday, June 16, 2026, at the Theater Casino in Zug, and on Thursday, June 18, 2026, at the KKL in Lucerne.
The program will be led by founder and CEO Timo Dainese. Chief Economist Prof. Dr. Maurice Pedergnana and CIO Cyrill von Burg will discuss the outlook for the economy and capital markets in a panel discussion. We are also pleased to welcome Dr. phil. Helmut Stalder as a guest speaker, a renowned historian, publicist, and author of numerous historical non-fiction books and biographies.
To registration (event in Swiss German)
Information Session for Private Individuals – Presentation in English – Business, Economic, and Stock Market Outlook
Our next information session for private individuals in English will take place on Thursday, June 25, 2026, at 6:00 p.m. The event is aimed at English-speaking individuals who would like to get a non-binding impression of our company.
To registration (event in English)
Zugerberg Finanz KidsDay – Review
On Wednesday, May 27, the Zugerberg Finanz KidsDay took place at the Lättich sports complex in Baar. Over 110 soccer-loving children aged 6 to 12 took to the field full of anticipation—despite the hot summer temperatures.
Read the recap (in German)
Market data
| Stock markets | since 31/12/2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SMI | 13'542.7 | +2.1% | |
| SPI | 19'157.8 | +5.2% | |
| DAX € | 25'104.7 | +2.5% | |
| Euro Stoxx 50 € | 6'050.5 | +4.5% | |
| S&P 500 $ | 7'580.1 | +10.7% | |
| Dow Jones $ | 51'032.5 | +6.2% | |
| Nasdaq $ | 26'972.6 | +16.1% | |
| MSCI EM $ | 1'752.2 | +24.8% | |
| MSCI World $ | 4'864.6 | +9.8% | |
| Bond markets | since 31/12/2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SBI Dom Gov TR | 220.1 | –1.3% | |
| SBI Dom Non-Gov TR | 121.9 | +0.3% | |
| Real estate markets | since 31/12/2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| SXI RE Funds | 603.2 | +0.3% | |
| SXI RE Shares | 4'827.7 | +6.8% | |
| Commodities | since 31/12/2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil (WTI; $/Bbl.) | 87.4 | +52.1% | |
| Gold (CHF/kg) | 114'002.1 | +3.6% | |
| Bitcoin (USD) | 73'582.0 | –16.0% | |
| Currencies | since 31/12/2025 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/CHF | 0.9105 | –2.2% | |
| USD/CHF | 0.7810 | –1.5% | |
| EUR/USD | 1.1659 | –0.7% | |
| Short-term interest rates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-m | 3-m. fcst. | 12-m. fcst. | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.1%–0.0% | -0.1%–0.0% |
| EUR | 2.27% | 1.9%–2.1% | 1.7%–1.9% |
| USD | 3.67% | 3.4%–3.6% | 3.0%–3.3% |
| Long-term interest rates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-years | 3-m. fcst. | 12-m. fcst. | |
| CHF | 0.41% | 0.2%–0.5% | 0.4%–0.7% |
| EUR | 2.92% | 2.8%–3.0% | 2.5%–2.8% |
| USD | 4.44% | 4.1%–4.4% | 3.7%–4.0% |
| Inflation | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026P | 2027P | |
| Schweiz | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Euroraum | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% |
| USA | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Economy (real GDP) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2026P | 2027P | |
| Switzerland | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| Eurozone | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| USA | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| Global | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |